INTERNAL DRAFT — not yet client-ready. For Jon's review. Data-driven, plain presentation only; no reference to any prior conversation with Benjamin should appear anywhere in this document.
Hello Holt · Performance & Opportunity Review
Where things stand, and what we're fixing
A plain look at same-store performance over the past year, the specific factors currently holding bookings back, and the concrete work already underway to address each one.
Same-store performance, month by month
Every point below compares the same 60 units: properties with booking history reaching back to at least August 2024, so a full trailing year can be measured against the year before it, and that are still active today. Hello Holt's book totals 256 units; the other ~196 either came onto the rental market more recently than August 2024 or have since gone inactive, so they don't yet have two comparable years to measure and are excluded from this specific chart only.
Occupancy YoY ADR YoY RevPAR YoY
Source: Pacer (KeyData, in-service-both-spans cohort). Each point is a trailing-12-month reading ending that month, using only units with a service-start date on or before the start of that reading's comparison year (e.g., for the Aug '26 point, on or before Aug 27, 2024) that are still active today. Cohort grows from 49 to 60 units month over month as more of the book crosses that two-year mark; RevPAR = adjusted occupancy × fee-inclusive ADR.
RevPAR YoY, trailing 12 months
-9.0%
Held in a -7.5% to -9.7% band for nine straight readings
Pacer (KeyData, same-store cohort, 60 units)
Occupancy YoY, trailing 12 months
-12.3%
The metric to watch: down every reading since December
Pacer (KeyData, same-store cohort)
ADR YoY, trailing 12 months
+1.0%
Steady recovery from -7.5% in December
Pacer (KeyData, same-store cohort)
Before and since Pacer
The same nine readings above, with the same-store unit count for each, split at the point Pacer took over day-to-day pricing (June 3).
TTM ending
SS units
RevPAR YoY
December 2025
49
-9.2%
January 2026
50
-7.5%
February 2026
51
-9.0%
March 2026
51
-8.4%
April 2026
52
-9.1%
May 2026
54
-8.3%
Pacer takes over day-to-day pricing — June 3
June 2026
57
-9.7%
July 2026
57
-9.7%
August 2026
60
-9.0%
Unit count climbs every month as more of the book crosses the 24-month "both spans" eligibility mark described above — that's expected cohort growth, not a change in who's being measured.
Even after June 3, near-term bookings take time to turn over: 68% of June's revenue, 38% of July's, and 26% of August's had already been booked before that date. August is the first month where most of its revenue (74%) reflects pricing decisions made after the handoff, and it landed at -9.0% — squarely inside the same band as every month before it, including the ones that were entirely pre-Pacer.
Average RevPAR YoY before Pacer's start (Dec-Apr): -8.6%. Since (May-Aug): -9.2%. A half-point gap on a metric that has moved within a 2.2-point band all year, with no visible break at the June 3 line. This headwind was already present well before Pacer began managing pricing, and it has not deepened since.
Guest experience
Review scores across the portfolio, same period.
Portfolio guest rating
4.85
1,976 reviews across 85 rated units, unchanged from seven weeks ago
Pacer (Airbnb review export, 2026-08-26)
Guest Favorite units
20
Up from 0 seven weeks ago, as Airbnb expanded the badge across the book
Pacer (Airbnb review export)
Units with a real score decline
4 of 85
80 units flat, 1 improved over the same period
Pacer (Airbnb review export)
Cleanliness (4.89), Communication (4.88), and Location (4.85) are all strong. Check-in (4.77) and Value (4.76) run lowest, and Check-in is the single most common weak point across the book. Two established listings sit below portfolio average and are worth direct attention: HS13011 (Puerto Vallarta, 4.62 across 26 reviews) and CANT12 (Spain, 4.71 across 21 reviews).
Minimum-rate floors: a concrete, fixable lever
Avon's minrate scan has covered 48 of 149 units so far. It found specific units where the price floor is set above what confirmed demand has actually been paying, quietly blocking bookings that would otherwise clear.
Recoverable, next 90 days
Up to $9,184
9 units flagged with a floor set too high for their market and bedroom segment
Pacer (Avon Minrate Scan, 48 of 149 units)
Already-cleared bookings below floor
$118,938
43 units took bookings below their own stated floor in the trailing 12 months — rent that cleared, but a floor that wasn't enforced
Pacer (Avon Minrate Scan)
Pacer upside at 25% commission
+$958 to +$2,296
From fixing the 9 flagged floors alone, conservative to aggressive
Pacer (Avon Minrate Scan)
Unit
Market
Current floor
Recommended floor
90-day recovery
BREZ21A-VC (Bucharest, 1BR)
Bucharest
$52
$41-49
+$160 to +$656
PV2E (San Miguel, 2BR)
Mexico Urban
$123
$96-112
+$393 to +$1,131
HS13011 (Puerto Vallarta, 2BR)
Zona Hotelera
$145
$126-143
+$197 to +$1,319
VC206-PQ (Bucharest, 1BR)
Bucharest
$115
$41-49
+$2,129 to +$2,625
MONT14-M3 / M4 (San Miguel, studios)
Mexico Urban
$47
$33-41
+$59 to +$135 each
Source: Pacer (Avon Minrate Scan, Hello Holt, 48 of 149 units scanned as of 2026-08-26). Conservative = highest floor where 60% of trailing-12-month comparable bookings would still clear. Aggressive = highest floor where 80% still clear. This is a live, ongoing scan; 101 units have not yet been scored.
Listing content: photo captions not yet applied
A second concrete, no-cost lever available to this portfolio right now.
Pacer's AI photo-captioning pass, which rewrites every listing photo caption for OTA search relevance and click-through, is live in production on three other portfolios but has not yet been run on Hello Holt. This is a straightforward, zero-cost addition — recommend prioritizing Hello Holt for the next captioning cohort alongside the minrate fixes above. We don't yet have a Hello Holt-specific lift number to quote; that will come once it's run here.
Forward booking pace, next 65 days
Bookings made so far for stays through October 30, compared to what was on the books at the same point last year.
Forward RevPAR, same-store
+43.4%
$65.39 booked so far vs. $45.60 at this point last year
$232.93 booked so far vs. $187.38 at this point last year
Pacer (KeyData forward pace)
Forward hold nights: 581 nights (+232% YoY, up from 175)
Occupancy above is simply booked nights divided by available nights; hold nights are a separate figure and don't change that ratio. What this number does say: 581 nights of inventory are being pulled off the market for owner use or maintenance over this window, up from 175 last year — nights guests can't book into no matter how strong demand is. Worth confirming this reflects a real increase in owner activity, not a change in how holds are being recorded, before using it externally.
Greenshoots: verified reservations
Three individual reservations, one per market, each checked against its matched year-ago comparable.
Aspen, CO — CRV104 (1BR)
+83.3%
Stay revenue $8,970.30 this year vs. $4,893.44 the matched week last year
Three specific, real reservations, one from each major market in the portfolio. Real, verified proof that when demand is present and pricing is right, this team captures it.
What's already in motion
Pricing & availability
Far-out pricing report for Bucharest, the largest market in the portfolio (87 of 149 units)
Minimum-rate floor corrections for the 9 flagged units above