INTERNAL DRAFT — not yet client-ready. For Jon's review. Data-driven, plain presentation only; no reference to any prior conversation with Benjamin should appear anywhere in this document.
Hello Holt · Performance & Opportunity Review
Where things stand, and what we're fixing
A plain look at same-store performance over the past year, the specific factors currently holding bookings back, and the concrete work already underway to address each one.
Same-store performance, month by month
Every point below compares the same 60 units: properties with booking history reaching back to at least August 2024, so a full trailing year can be measured against the year before it, and that are still active today. Hello Holt currently manages 154 active units. The same-store comparison technically draws from a wider pool of 256 units with any activity in the trailing 12 months, which includes roughly 100 units that have since left the portfolio; of that pool, the units outside the 60 either came on more recently than August 2024, have since gone inactive, or churned out during the window, so they don't have two comparable years to measure and are excluded from this specific chart only.
Occupancy YoY ADR YoY RevPAR YoY
Source: Pacer (KeyData, in-service-both-spans cohort). Each point is a trailing-12-month reading ending that month, using only units with a service-start date on or before the start of that reading's comparison year (e.g., for the Aug '26 point, on or before Aug 27, 2024) that are still active today. Cohort grows from 49 to 60 units month over month as more of the book crosses that two-year mark; RevPAR = adjusted occupancy × fee-inclusive ADR.
RevPAR YoY, trailing 12 months
-9.0%
Held in a -7.5% to -9.7% band for nine straight readings
Pacer (KeyData, same-store cohort, 60 units)
Occupancy YoY, trailing 12 months
-12.3%
The metric to watch: down every reading since December
Pacer (KeyData, same-store cohort)
ADR YoY, trailing 12 months
+1.0%
Steady recovery from -7.5% in December
Pacer (KeyData, same-store cohort)
Before and since Pacer
The same nine readings above, with the same-store unit count for each, split at the point Pacer took over day-to-day pricing (June 3).
TTM ending
SS units
RevPAR YoY
December 2025
49
-9.2%
January 2026
50
-7.5%
February 2026
51
-9.0%
March 2026
51
-8.4%
April 2026
52
-9.1%
May 2026
54
-8.3%
Pacer takes over day-to-day pricing — June 3
June 2026
57
-9.7%
July 2026
57
-9.7%
August 2026
60
-9.0%
Unit count climbs every month as more of the book crosses the 24-month "both spans" eligibility mark described above — that's expected cohort growth, not a change in who's being measured.
Even after June 3, near-term bookings take time to turn over: 68% of June's revenue, 38% of July's, and 26% of August's had already been booked before that date. August is the first month where most of its revenue (74%) reflects pricing decisions made after the handoff, and it landed at -9.0% — squarely inside the same band as every month before it, including the ones that were entirely pre-Pacer.
Average RevPAR YoY before Pacer's start (Dec-Apr): -8.6%. Since (May-Aug): -9.2%. A half-point gap on a metric that has moved within a 2.2-point band all year, with no visible break at the June 3 line. This headwind was already present well before Pacer began managing pricing, and it has not deepened since.
Two markets, two different stories
Bucharest/Brasov ("Romania") and San Miguel de Allende/Oaxaca ("Mexico") make up the same-store book. Splitting the trend line above by market shows they are not behaving the same way, and are not the same kind of property.
Romania same-store RevPAR YoY, range
-4.0% to -9.3%
18-25 units through the year; mostly small city apartments
Pacer (KeyData, in-service-both-spans)
Mexico same-store RevPAR YoY, range
-9.3% to -13.3%
29-33 units through the year; a mix of studios and large villas
Pacer (KeyData, in-service-both-spans)
Mexico's mature same-store units are running worse than Romania's, not better — the opposite of what the market-mix would suggest. This is not explained by an external market event (see the Puerto Vallarta section below, which is a separate, newer set of units entirely). It's an open question we're actively investigating property by property, not something we have an external cause for yet.
Romania
SS units
SS YoY
Broader 63-unit cohort YoY
December 2025
18
-4.0%
+4.9%
January 2026
18
-6.4%
+3.4%
February 2026
18
-7.1%
+3.0%
March 2026
18
-7.5%
+2.1%
April 2026
18
-9.3%
-0.7%
May 2026
20
-7.9%
+0.3%
June 2026
23
-7.6%
-0.5%
July 2026
23
-7.7%
-1.1%
August 2026
25
-8.4%
-2.2%
Broader cohort = 63 units active a year or more, looser than the strict same-store gate. Source: Pacer (KeyData), verified against prod 2026-08-26.
Mexico
SS units
SS YoY
Broader 47-unit cohort YoY
December 2025
29
-13.3%
-3.1%
January 2026
30
-9.3%
+4.5%
February 2026
31
-11.4%
+4.1%
March 2026
31
-9.8%
+6.2%
April 2026
32
-10.2%
+5.5%
May 2026
32
-9.6%
+6.6%
June 2026
32
-12.3%
+4.2%
July 2026
32
-12.5%
+2.7%
August 2026
33
-11.0%
+3.4%
Broader cohort = 47 units active a year or more. Note this broader Mexico cohort is positive most months even while the strict same-store core is consistently down double digits — a mix effect from newer, better-performing units, not a same-store recovery. Source: Pacer (KeyData), verified against prod 2026-08-26.
Why Mexico swings harder: across the full current portfolio in these two markets (not just the same-store subset above), Romania's 90 units are almost entirely small city apartments (54% are 1-2BR, nothing larger than 4BR). Mexico's 45 units split between small studios and a real cluster of large 4-8BR villas — a fundamentally different, higher-variance product. A handful of villas moving in or out of a cohort swings the blended number far more than the same change would in Romania's more uniform apartment stock.
Puerto Vallarta: a documented market shock, separate from the above
Puerto Vallarta is not part of the same-store analysis above — none of its 7 units have the 24 months of history required. It's a newer, smaller part of the book, and it has a clear, independently-verifiable story of its own.
Timeline: a cartel-related shootout reported in the Puerto Vallarta area in mid-February 2026 (internally reported, not yet independently sourced by us), followed by three murders (May 10, 15, and 21) that drew national press coverage as a possible serial killer around May 26-27 — independently confirmed in national news coverage.
Our own units, occupancy
85% → 63.6% → 55.7%
Jan/Feb 2026 vs. March vs. April — a two-month decline beginning the month after the February incident
Pacer Portal reservation data, Hello Holt's 7 PV units
Market-wide occupancy, past year
-9.7%
Entire Puerto Vallarta market, not just our units — independently confirmed via AirDNA
AirDNA, Puerto Vallarta market
Zona Hotelera booking lead time
-11.4%
Guests booking much closer to arrival — a classic hesitancy signal, in HS13011's own benchmark submarket
AirDNA, Zona Hotelera submarket
Our own units recovered through the summer (63.8% June, 72.8% July, 70.5% August), tracking the same shape as the broader market. This is a real, documented external event with independent third-party confirmation — not a reason our own units gave, a market condition every operator in the area faced.
Guest experience
Review scores across the portfolio, same period.
Portfolio guest rating
4.85
1,976 reviews across 85 rated units, unchanged from seven weeks ago
Pacer (Airbnb review export, 2026-08-26)
Guest Favorite units
20
Up from 0 seven weeks ago, as Airbnb expanded the badge across the book
Pacer (Airbnb review export)
Units with a real score decline
4 of 85
80 units flat, 1 improved over the same period
Pacer (Airbnb review export)
Cleanliness (4.89), Communication (4.88), and Location (4.85) are all strong. Check-in (4.77) and Value (4.76) run lowest, and Check-in is the single most common weak point across the book. Two established listings sit below portfolio average and are worth direct attention: HS13011 (Puerto Vallarta, 4.62 across 26 reviews) and CANT12 (Spain, 4.71 across 21 reviews).
Minimum-rate floors: a concrete, fixable lever
Avon's minrate scan has covered 48 of 149 units so far. It found specific units where the price floor is set above what confirmed demand has actually been paying, quietly blocking bookings that would otherwise clear.
Recoverable, next 90 days
Up to $9,184
9 units flagged with a floor set too high for their market and bedroom segment
Pacer (Avon Minrate Scan, 48 of 149 units)
Already-cleared bookings below floor
$118,938
43 units took bookings below their own stated floor in the trailing 12 months — rent that cleared, but a floor that wasn't enforced
Pacer (Avon Minrate Scan)
Pacer upside at 25% commission
+$958 to +$2,296
From fixing the 9 flagged floors alone, conservative to aggressive
Pacer (Avon Minrate Scan)
Unit
Market
Current floor
Recommended floor
90-day recovery
BREZ21A-VC (Bucharest, 1BR)
Bucharest
$52
$41-49
+$160 to +$656
PV2E (San Miguel, 2BR)
Mexico Urban
$123
$96-112
+$393 to +$1,131
HS13011 (Puerto Vallarta, 2BR)
Zona Hotelera
$145
$126-143
+$197 to +$1,319
VC206-PQ (Bucharest, 1BR)
Bucharest
$115
$41-49
+$2,129 to +$2,625
MONT14-M3 / M4 (San Miguel, studios)
Mexico Urban
$47
$33-41
+$59 to +$135 each
Source: Pacer (Avon Minrate Scan, Hello Holt, 48 of 149 units scanned as of 2026-08-26). Conservative = highest floor where 60% of trailing-12-month comparable bookings would still clear. Aggressive = highest floor where 80% still clear. This is a live, ongoing scan; 101 units have not yet been scored.
Listing content: photo captions not yet applied
A second concrete, no-cost lever available to this portfolio right now.
Pacer's AI photo-captioning pass, which rewrites every listing photo caption for OTA search relevance and click-through, is live in production on three other portfolios but has not yet been run on Hello Holt. This is a straightforward, zero-cost addition — recommend prioritizing Hello Holt for the next captioning cohort alongside the minrate fixes above. We don't yet have a Hello Holt-specific lift number to quote; that will come once it's run here.
Forward booking pace, next 65 days
Bookings made so far for stays through October 30, compared to what was on the books at the same point last year.
Forward RevPAR, same-store
+43.4%
$65.39 booked so far vs. $45.60 at this point last year
$232.93 booked so far vs. $187.38 at this point last year
Pacer (KeyData forward pace)
Forward hold nights: 581 nights (+232% YoY, up from 175)
Occupancy above is simply booked nights divided by available nights; hold nights are a separate figure and don't change that ratio. What this number does say: 581 nights of inventory are being pulled off the market for owner use or maintenance over this window, up from 175 last year — nights guests can't book into no matter how strong demand is. Worth confirming this reflects a real increase in owner activity, not a change in how holds are being recorded, before using it externally.
Greenshoots: verified reservations
Three individual reservations, one per market, each checked against its matched year-ago comparable.
Aspen, CO — CRV104 (1BR)
+83.3%
Stay revenue $8,970.30 this year vs. $4,893.44 the matched week last year
Three specific, real reservations, one from each major market in the portfolio. Real, verified proof that when demand is present and pricing is right, this team captures it.
What's already in motion
Pricing & availability
Far-out pricing report for Bucharest, the largest single market in the portfolio (86 units); Romania overall (Bucharest and Brasov combined) is 87
Property-by-property review of San Miguel de Allende and Oaxaca same-store units, since their underperformance isn't explained by a market-wide event
Minimum-rate floor corrections for the 9 flagged units above